NOBODY WANTS TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE
One of the first auctioneers I worked with in Murfreesboro, Dale Nichols with Parks Auction, said it to me years ago: “Nobody wants to catch a falling knife.”
Right now, I think that describes a lot of real estate buyers.
Prices are dropping. Properties are sitting longer. Buyers are cautious.
As auctioneers, we tend to see these changes early because we don’t get to hide from the market.
Put a property on the market at $900,000 and let it sit for six months, and you can keep calling it a $900,000 property. A seller can hire a Realtor, get an appraisal, look at the neighbor’s sale or come up with a number themselves.
Put it on the auction block and ask buyers to put real money behind their opinion?
You’ll find out pretty quick what the market thinks.
AN AUCTION EXPOSES THE MARKET.
I don’t determine what your house is worth.
Zillow doesn’t. The neighbor doesn’t. The seller doesn’t.
The market does.
When I do my job right, I put informed, willing buyers together, give them the same information and let them compete.
Then I ask one simple question:
Who will give more?
Eventually, somebody says yes and everybody else says no.
And lately, we’re hearing more no’s.
SO WHEN IS IT SAFE TO BUY?
“Jay, should I wait?”
“Are prices going lower?”
“Is this the bottom?”
Here’s the problem:
Nobody rings a bell at the bottom.
If you wait until everybody agrees prices have bottomed, rates are perfect and real estate is headed back up, everybody else knows it too.
That’s what makes auctions interesting in a changing market.
You’re not being asked to accept somebody else’s asking price.
You’re being asked what you’re willing to pay.
AUCTIONEERS GET A FRONT-ROW SEAT
We see when the phones stop ringing, registrations slow down and bidders quit stretching.
At an auction, there’s nowhere for the market to hide.
Eventually, I ask for another bid and nobody raises their hand.
That’s the market talking.
YOU DON’T HAVE TO CATCH THE BOTTOM
Everybody wants to buy at the absolute bottom.
Problem is, we usually don’t know where the bottom was until we’re looking at it in the rearview mirror. I CAN TELL YOU - WE HAVEN'T SEEN THE BOTTOM YET.
You don’t have to buy at the bottom. You need to buy at a number that makes sense for you.
Nobody wants to catch a falling knife. I get it.
But eventually, somebody has to be willing to pick the knife up.
Do your homework. Know your number. And when the opportunity makes sense, raise your hand.
THE MOST FAIR WAY TO BUY - IS WITH JAMES R. CASH AUCTIONS
— Jay Cash, The AuctioneerJames R. Cash Auctions & Real Estate
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